What if Thai baht slump as tourism arrivals miss on China pullback?
A shortfall in Chinese arrivals leaves Thai tourism receipts well below target, undercutting the services surplus and baht; weaker consumption, china-growth-linked demand and EM_FX soften with risk-off.
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The butterfly cascade
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Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A shortfall in Chinese arrivals leaves Thai tourism receipts well below target, undercutting the services surplus and baht; weaker consumption, china-growth-linked demand and EM_FX soften with risk-off. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · China growth ▼ · Consumer spending ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.