What if Toronto condo investors flee a glut of completions?
Negative-carry Toronto condo investors dumping into a completion wave breaks the pre-construction assignment market and marks down Canadian bank mortgage books; trade it via Canadian financials and HY credit widening rather than crypto beta. Rhymes with the 2017 Toronto correction after foreign-buyer taxes, but with far more leverage and supply this time. Transmission is domestic-bank and CMHC-insured, largely ring-fenced from the US, so the global cascade here is overstated. Forward angle: variable-rate trigger-point loans amplify forced selling versus 2017's fixed-rate base.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Negative-cash-flow Toronto condo investors dump units en masse as completions surge, breaking the pre-construction assignment market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.