What if Canada and Australia ban foreign homebuyers for good?
A permanent Canada/Australia foreign-buyer ban removes a marginal luxury bid but is a slow, localized demand subtraction — hence the near-flat MIXED cascade is appropriately tiny. Rhymes with BC/Ontario and NSW/Victoria foreign-buyer taxes (2016-17) and Canada's 2023 temporary ban, which softened top-end Vancouver/Toronto without systemic effect. Transmission is mainly reduced mainland-China and HK capital outflow into those markets. Forward angle: with Chinese capital controls already tight, the marginal foreign bid is smaller than in 2016, so impact is even more muted. Roots fine.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Canada and Australia permanently ban foreign residential buyers, removing a key marginal bid from luxury markets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.