What if Trade-and-immigration combo shock compounds US stagflation?
Simultaneous tariff hikes and immigration restriction hit both import costs and labor supply, compounding a stagflationary squeeze; inflation surprises higher, growth slows and equities de-rate.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Simultaneous tariff hikes and immigration restriction hit both import costs and labor supply, compounding a stagflationary squeeze; inflation surprises higher, growth slows and equities de-rate. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation surprise ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.49–-0.66% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.06–-0.27% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.09–+0.15% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.64–+4.06% · other way +27.71% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.37–+0.88% · other way -8.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.85–-0.02% · other way +1.63% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.75–-0.19% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.39–+0.67% · other way +0.49% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.92–-0.13% · other way +5.06% (n=12) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.02–+0.77% · other way -4.02% (n=12) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.39–+2.66% · other way -1.01% (n=12) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.98–+1.2% · other way +1.89% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.49–-0.14% · other way +1.96% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.5% | 71% | 29 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.7% | 67% | 33 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -1.8% | 68% | 29 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.1% | 69% | 30 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 30 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.3% · 5d +0.7% | 64% | 33 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 30 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.5% | 64% | 30 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.3% | 62% | 30 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -6.1% | 64% | 22 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.9% | 63% | 27 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.9% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 30 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +4bp | 59% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |