What if Trade-war escalation hammers exporter EM currencies?
A new round of tariffs and supply-chain disruption hits trade-dependent EMs hardest, weakening their currencies and widening risk premia as growth forecasts are cut.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A new round of tariffs and supply-chain disruption hits trade-dependent EMs hardest, weakening their currencies and widening risk premia as growth forecasts are cut. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.79–-0.71% · other way +0.35% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.12–+1.38% · other way +2.88% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.34–+2.9% · other way +2.36% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.11–+0.28% · other way +3.54% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.1–-0.07% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.31–+0.53% · other way +26.61% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.43–+0.79% · other way -0.78% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.11–+3.53% · other way +3.44% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.38–+1.11% · other way +5.83% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.58–-0.11% · other way +2.7% (n=12) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.17–-0.25% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -9.08–+6.53% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.82–+0.06% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 14 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.22–-0.54% · other way -3.18% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 31 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +7.0% | 80% | 5 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 25 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.0% | 69% | 26 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 17 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.2% | 65% | 26 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 65% | 26 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 23 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -5.6% | 67% | 6 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.0% | 60% | 25 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.0% | 58% | 26 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.6% | 58% | 26 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 26 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.9% | 58% | 26 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -13.5% | 60% | 5 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |