What if Trading-revenue normalization drags big-bank earnings?
A calm, low-volatility regime shrinks FICC and equities trading revenue from elevated levels, removing an earnings tailwind and modestly de-rating the capital-markets banks.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A calm, low-volatility regime shrinks FICC and equities trading revenue from elevated levels, removing an earnings tailwind and modestly de-rating the capital-markets banks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -10.77–+2.55% |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.35–+1.16% |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.37–+1.83% |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.35–+0.03% |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.44–+0.95% |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.35–+0.52% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.3% · 5d -10.9% | 80% | 16 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.6% | 64% | 35 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.8% | 64% | 17 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 33 | 0.18 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.12 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -4.8% | 55% | 16 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -4bp | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 52% | 35 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.5% | 47% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 37 | 0.00 | · |