What if Turkey restructures its domestic lira bonds?
Ankara extending lira-debt maturities amid deeply negative real rates is financial repression that erodes domestic savers, with muted global read (slightly softer USD/real yields). Turkey's 2021 cut-into-inflation episode that sent the lira to record lows is the template. Transmission is internal: pensions/banks forced to hold extended paper; the global cross-asset moves are negligible, so the MIXED tag and tiny cascade are appropriate.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Ankara forces maturity extension on domestic lira debt as real rates turn deeply negative. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Fed policy path ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -6.0–+1.6% · other way +17.19% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.43–+2.13% · other way -3.43% (n=10) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.13–+0.9% · other way -0.2% (n=11) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.26–+0.45% · other way -0.69% (n=11) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -8.27–+5.02% · other way -0.32% (n=10) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.1–+0.33% · other way +1.31% (n=11) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.27–+5.3% · other way -3.08% (n=10) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.34–+0.29% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 10 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▼ -3bp model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–+0.14% · other way +0.78% (n=11) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -15.11–+3.03% · other way +21.9% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.85–+0.1% · other way -0.03% (n=11) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -16.58–+5.28% · other way +20.6% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade on TRY/SOL: history is regime-biased — the analogue windows are dominated by the 2021 Turkish lira -50% rate-cut episode, an idiosyncratic crisis, not this lira-restructuring channel.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -1.6% | 83% | 6 | 0.54 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 76% | 21 | 0.50 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -6.1% | 80% | 5 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 71% | 21 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 70% | 20 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -3.1% | 68% | 22 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -12bp · 5d -7bp | 64% | 25 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 5 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -14bp · 5d -8bp | 56% | 25 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 22 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 52% | 21 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 52% | 21 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.5% · 5d +3.1% | 52% | 23 | 0.04 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 52% | 25 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Turkey on orthodox tightening path post-2023; forced lira-bond extension less likely now. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.