What if Turkey restructures its domestic lira bonds?
Ankara extending lira-debt maturities amid deeply negative real rates is financial repression that erodes domestic savers, with muted global read (slightly softer USD/real yields). Turkey's 2021 cut-into-inflation episode that sent the lira to record lows is the template. Transmission is internal: pensions/banks forced to hold extended paper; the global cross-asset moves are negligible, so the MIXED tag and tiny cascade are appropriate.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Ankara forces maturity extension on domestic lira debt as real rates turn deeply negative. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Fed policy path ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.