What if a major economy enacts universal basic income?
UBI funded into an automation backdrop is a fiscal-reflation signal: breakevens and the nominal-real wedge widen, the long end cheapens, and the Fed leans against rising inflation expectations. Closest analogue is the 2021 stimulus-cheque inflation impulse that lifted breakevens and steepened the curve. Forward angle: the deflationary automation force partly offsets the inflationary transfer, so the net rate move is smaller and slower than a pure helicopter-money episode — a 3-10y theme, not a tradable shock.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A major economy enacts Universal Basic Income in response to automation-driven displacement. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.27–+0.03% · other way -1.53% (n=12) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.34–+5.29% · other way +4.9% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -8.13–+2.17% · other way +5.11% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.79–+0.24% · other way -0.98% (n=12) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.19–+0.31% · other way +-0.0% (n=12) |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -2.24–+8.73% · other way +2.3% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -7.1% | 66% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +2bp | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.9% | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +1bp | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +-0.0% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 39% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 44% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Full UBI enactment by major economy structurally rare; politically distant even over 3-10yr. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.