What if a weak pound and poor harvests drive UK food inflation sharply higher?
A weak pound, poor harvests and high input costs drive UK food inflation sharply higher, a key driver of the BoE's cost-of-living stress on household real incomes.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A weak pound, poor harvests and high input costs drive UK food inflation sharply higher, a key driver of the BoE's cost-of-living stress on household real incomes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.04–+0.8% · other way +0.79% (n=10) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.86–+0.1% · other way -1.16% (n=8) |
| 3 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.63–+0.98% · other way +1.31% (n=8) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.48–+0.42% · other way +2.43% (n=9) |
| 5 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–-0.14% · other way +0.47% (n=8) |
| 6 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.83–+0.12% · other way -1.06% (n=8) |
| 7 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.01–+0.45% · other way -0.21% (n=10) |
| 8 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.18–-0.08% · other way -0.46% (n=8) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.0–+1.62% · other way -3.44% (n=10) |
| 10 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.5–+0.08% · other way +0.03% (n=8) |
| 11 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.66–+0.21% · other way -0.53% (n=7) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -2.8–+8.88% · other way +5.5% (n=10) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -2.25–+7.85% · other way +4.5% (n=10) |
| 14 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.6–+0.16% · other way -1.45% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 29 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 55% | 29 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 29 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.5% | 55% | 29 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 29 | 0.08 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +2.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 37 | 0.07 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +4bp | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 54% | 37 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 25 | 0.03 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +3bp | 51% | 39 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 48% | 29 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.3% | 48% | 29 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |