What if UK CPI re-accelerates toward double digits and forces the BoE to halt cuts?
UK CPI re-accelerates back toward double digits as services inflation proves sticky and a fresh energy-price-cap rise feeds through, forcing the BoE to abandon its easing path.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. UK CPI re-accelerates back toward double digits as services inflation proves sticky and a fresh energy-price-cap rise feeds through, forcing the BoE to abandon its easing path. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.62–-0.02% · other way +0.19% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.81–+0.32% · other way +3.47% (n=12) |
| 3 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +10bp hist -0.3–+16.52% · other way -5.1% (n=12) |
| 4 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +9bp hist -0.15–+13.62% · other way -8.3% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.14–+10.85% · other way +2.22% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.86–+0.2% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.82–+0.81% · other way -4.12% (n=10) |
| 8 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.7–+0.71% · other way -10.06% (n=2) |
| 9 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.58–+1.8% · other way +1.73% (n=12) |
| 10 | Robinhood HOODon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.1–+2.71% · other way +24.21% (n=2) |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.25–-0.12% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.16–+0.18% · other way +1.34% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.63–+5.33% · other way +16.76% (n=2) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.38–+1.85% · other way -2.67% (n=3) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -9.1% | 79% | 18 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 68% | 35 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.2% | 68% | 35 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +3bp | 67% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +9.9% · 5d +0.1% | 66% | 35 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 35 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.9% · 5d +0.5% | 64% | 34 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +3bp | 65% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.3% | 64% | 37 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 35 | 0.12 | · |