What if UK & North Sea windstorm cluster batters insurers?
A clustered run of named Atlantic windstorms hits the UK and North Sea in one winter, producing aggregate losses that strain European insurers and offshore-energy assets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A clustered run of named Atlantic windstorms hits the UK and North Sea in one winter, producing aggregate losses that strain European insurers and offshore-energy assets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · European energy ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.69–-0.19% · other way -1.59% (n=8) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.9–-0.01% · other way +15.69% (n=11) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.52–-0.05% · other way +6.04% (n=8) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.68–+0.59% · other way +1.09% (n=11) |
| 6 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.46–+1.04% · other way +1.89% (n=11) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.35–+0.36% · other way +0.46% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.31–+0.34% · other way +10.48% (n=8) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.11–+7.24% · other way -13.66% (n=11) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.51–+1.22% · other way +0.63% (n=11) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.35–+0.56% · other way +0.43% (n=11) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.87–+0.13% · other way +1.39% (n=11) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.63–+4.31% · other way +27.55% (n=7) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.58–+0.16% · other way -0.27% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.5% | 70% | 20 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 68% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.4% · 5d +3.6% | 62% | 37 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 37 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 38 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -8.6% | 57% | 14 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -3.4% | 57% | 37 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.8% · 5d +1.8% | 55% | 11 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.3% | 54% | 37 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 52% | 31 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 51% | 37 | 0.03 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -4.2% | 51% | 37 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |