What if Brent above $130 forces central banks to delay rate cuts as inflation reaccelerates?
A Gulf supply shock holding Brent above $130 adds 1–2pp to headline CPI across advanced economies, forcing central banks to delay cuts in the stagflationary path of ECB/BoE adverse scenarios.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Gulf supply shock holding Brent above $130 adds 1–2pp to headline CPI across advanced economies, forcing central banks to delay cuts in the stagflationary path of ECB/BoE adverse scenarios. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +4.2% hist +0.11–+2.27% · other way +3.51% (n=9) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.5% hist -0.95–+2.11% · other way +5.65% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.5% hist +0.36–+1.31% · other way +1.66% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.29–-0.51% · other way +0.69% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.99–+0.99% · other way +8.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.2–-0.54% · other way +1.13% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.85–+6.17% · other way +8.29% (n=7) |
| 8 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -3.6–+8.24% · other way +4.06% (n=10) |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.92–+-0.0% · other way +0.65% (n=12) |
| 10 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.14–+2.11% · other way -0.86% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.49–+1.11% · other way +1.39% (n=12) |
| 13 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.67–+3.42% · other way +4.32% (n=9) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +13bp hist -1.49–+24.59% · other way +12.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 80% | 34 | 0.58 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +0.5% | 73% | 34 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.5% | 69% | 34 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 68% | 34 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +6bp | 64% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +18bp · 5d +8bp | 64% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 23 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 34 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.4% | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.1% · 5d +2.2% | 64% | 23 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 34 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 34 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +8.4% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -6.2% | 63% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |