What if UK private-sector pay stays above 6% and keeps the BoE in restrictive territory?
UK private-sector pay growth stays above 6% as workers bid to recover lost real wages, embedding second-round inflation effects and keeping the BoE in restrictive territory.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. UK private-sector pay growth stays above 6% as workers bid to recover lost real wages, embedding second-round inflation effects and keeping the BoE in restrictive territory. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation expectations ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.02–-0.32% · other way -1.17% (n=10) |
| 2 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +11bp hist +3.05–+9.54% · other way +5.5% (n=10) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.33–-0.1% · other way +2.43% (n=9) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.78–+3.95% · other way -3.44% (n=10) |
| 5 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +10bp hist +1.61–+9.81% · other way +4.5% (n=10) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.17–-0.05% · other way -1.45% (n=10) |
| 7 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.05–+2.08% · other way +2.31% (n=8) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.69–+0.64% · other way -5.52% (n=7) |
| 9 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.1–+0.12% · other way -10.06% (n=2) |
| 10 | Robinhood HOODon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.69–+0.49% · other way +24.21% (n=2) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.01–+0.2% · other way +1.79% (n=10) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.18–+1.85% · other way +16.76% (n=2) |
| 13 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +4bp model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.99–+2.5% · other way -1.22% (n=2) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -3.3% | 80% | 10 | 0.54 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 35 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 35 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +3bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.7% | 56% | 36 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 30 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -8.6% | 54% | 26 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -2.3% | 52% | 25 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.0% | 53% | 40 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 51% | 35 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |