What if US bank CRE-loss provisioning spike pressures regional-bank equities?
Rising commercial-real-estate charge-offs force regional banks to build reserves sharply, cutting earnings and capital return; the provisioning cycle de-rates the regional-bank cohort and tightens small-business credit.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Rising commercial-real-estate charge-offs force regional banks to build reserves sharply, cutting earnings and capital return; the provisioning cycle de-rates the regional-bank cohort and tightens small-business credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.