What if a bond-market revolt forces sudden US austerity?
A US bond-market revolt is the textbook bear-steepener: term premium snaps wider, the 30y leads the 10y higher, DXY softens and gold/BTC bid as the fiscal hedge while long-duration tech underperforms. The literal rhyme is the Sep-2022 Liz Truss gilt crisis - a forced fiscal U-turn after yields gapped - and the 1994 Treasury bear market. Forward angle: unlike the UK, no LDI-pension margin-call doom-loop forces the Fed's hand, but a buyer's strike on the long bond plus heavy coupon supply means the 30y is the cleanest short and the convexity hedge.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A US bond-market revolt forces sudden austerity (a 'Liz Truss' moment for Treasuries). The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.