What if the executive openly defies a Supreme Court ruling?
An executive defying the Supreme Court is a reserve-confidence tail: rule-of-law erosion lifts long-end Treasury yields and gold, weakens the dollar, and bids bitcoin as a non-sovereign hedge while equities derate. No US analogue; the rhyme is EM institutional-breakdown episodes (Turkey's central-bank-independence assault, 2021 lira collapse) repriced to the reserve currency. The forward angle: a credible challenge to US institutions threatens the Treasury bid that underpins the whole system.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the Tail risk horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Executive openly refuses to enforce a Supreme Court ruling, constitutional standoff rattles Treasuries and dollar. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.