What if a dockworker strike shuts every US East Coast port?
A full East/Gulf Coast ILA shutdown is a domestic supply/inflation shock - empty shelves and a goods-CPI bump - more than a risk asset event, so the muted Nasdaq -0.3% and inflation-expectations +0.5% are correctly weighted. Rhymes with the brief Oct-2024 ILA strike (three days, quickly settled) and the 2002 West Coast lockout that cost ~$1bn/day. The US is the importer; partners (EU/Asia exporters) feel demand backup. The forward angle is automation is the unresolved 2024 sticking point, so a strike here risks being longer and more inflationary than the last.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A prolonged ILA dockworker strike shuts every East and Gulf Coast container port, paralyzing US import flows. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.51–+2.43% · other way +31.9% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.59–+0.07% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.22–-0.1% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.41–+0.49% · other way +7.54% (n=12) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.32–+0.3% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.06–+1.89% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.65–+7.07% · other way +5.4% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.36–+1.29% · other way +4.46% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist +0.21–+2.45% · other way +6.3% (n=12) |
| 11 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -7.29–+1.45% · other way +0.73% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -6.5% | 70% | 27 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -5.2% | 63% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 34 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.4% · 5d +8.7% | 56% | 34 | 0.12 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -6.5% | 58% | 30 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +4bp | 55% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 54% | 33 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 32 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.3% | 51% | 33 | 0.02 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 46% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 49% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +3bp | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.3% | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
ILA contract friction recurs; prolonged full East/Gulf shutdown likely short-lived via intervention. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.