What if the US deports millions of undocumented workers?
Mass deportations are a labor-supply shock, so the cleanest channel is higher breakevens lifting real yields and the long end, with labor-intensive homebuilders squeezed and consumer spending crimped — gold falls as real rates rise. Rhymes with the post-2021 reopening labor shortage that drove unit-labor-cost and shelter inflation and forced the Fed to stay tight. Forward angle: this is a stagflationary supply shock (higher inflation AND lower output), so the Fed reaction is ambiguous — the curve, not just the front end, carries the signal.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The US enacts mass deportations of millions of undocumented workers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Labor shortage ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.