What if US muni-stress wave from population outflows widens spreads?
Sustained outmigration from high-tax and climate-exposed states erodes local tax bases, stressing municipal credit; affected muni spreads widen and regional service cuts deepen the local growth drag.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sustained outmigration from high-tax and climate-exposed states erodes local tax bases, stressing municipal credit; affected muni spreads widen and regional service cuts deepen the local growth drag. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.