What if US offshore-wind permits frozen: developers write off projects?
A federal halt on new offshore-wind permitting forces multibillion-dollar project cancellations and impairments, sinking clean-energy equities and lifting gas-fired generation demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A federal halt on new offshore-wind permitting forces multibillion-dollar project cancellations and impairments, sinking clean-energy equities and lifting gas-fired generation demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▼ · Oil demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.29–+0.81% · other way -9.23% (n=5) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.64–+0.65% · other way -9.7% (n=5) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.21–+0.82% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
| 4 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.1% hist -1.04–+0.93% · other way -11.14% (n=5) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.35–+3.96% · other way +70.35% (n=5) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.36–+0.19% · other way -1.41% (n=7) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.16–+4.12% · other way +4.83% (n=2) |
| 8 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.49–+0.48% · other way -1.51% (n=12) |
| 9 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.19–+1.94% · other way +33.73% (n=5) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.42–+4.23% · other way +2.69% (n=5) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.22–+0.85% · other way -18.46% (n=5) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.57–+0.8% · other way +9.99% (n=2) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.21–+2.09% · other way +14.01% (n=2) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.7% | 64% | 33 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.3% | 61% | 33 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.9% | 59% | 31 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.16 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 17 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 31 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -3.1% | 55% | 35 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 51% | 32 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | · |