What if US weakens, dilutes, or delays SEC climate-disclosure rule?
Legal and political pressure guts the SEC climate-disclosure rule, lowering compliance costs and modestly favoring fossil-heavy issuers over low-carbon peers.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Legal and political pressure guts the SEC climate-disclosure rule, lowering compliance costs and modestly favoring fossil-heavy issuers over low-carbon peers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▼ · Financial conditions ▼ · Oil demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.12–+1.42% · other way -3.3% (n=5) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.78–+2.31% · other way -3.73% (n=5) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.12–+0.44% · other way +1.08% (n=12) |
| 4 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.11–+1.11% · other way -2.76% (n=5) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.74–+11.69% · other way +6.88% (n=5) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.33–+0.4% · other way +0.38% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.99–+7.59% · other way +2.53% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 21 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +6.8% · 5d +1.7% | 76% | 16 | 0.50 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -4.5% | 70% | 20 | 0.29 | · |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +11.6% · 5d +0.8% | 60% | 17 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.0% | 57% | 18 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 18 | 0.14 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 21 | 0.11 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.3% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 11 | 0.09 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.3% | 52% | 21 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 38% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 47% | 16 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 48% | 21 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 39% | 16 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +4bp | 46% | 21 | 0.00 | · |