What if USD/Treasuries safe-haven bid on trade shock?
An abrupt trade-war escalation drives a classic flight into US Treasuries and the dollar despite the US being at the center, flattening the curve as growth fears bite.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An abrupt trade-war escalation drives a classic flight into US Treasuries and the dollar despite the US being at the center, flattening the curve as growth fears bite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Yield-curve slope ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.4% hist -2.63–-0.99% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.0% hist -5.23–+0.91% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.8% hist -9.8–+1.52% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.85–-0.35% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -9.08–+2.16% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 7 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.04–+0.34% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.23–+0.5% · other way +0.7% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.41–-0.22% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.14–+0.95% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -6bp hist -3.34–-1.46% · other way +14.1% (n=12) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.32–+0.17% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.75–+0.33% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 14 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.36–-0.2% · other way -0.62% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.3% | 76% | 38 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -5.9% | 69% | 36 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -5.4% | 64% | 36 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 39 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -3.0% | 59% | 37 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 55% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +2bp | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |