What if Utility-death-spiral fears resurface in high-solar territories?
In high-penetration-solar regions, falling kWh sales and rising fixed costs revive utility-death-spiral worries, pressuring affected utility equities and credit despite overall load growth.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. In high-penetration-solar regions, falling kWh sales and rising fixed costs revive utility-death-spiral worries, pressuring affected utility equities and credit despite overall load growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.67–+0.31% · other way -6.55% (n=5) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.67–+0.35% · other way -9.91% (n=4) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.06–+0.47% · other way -0.8% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.38–+0.54% · other way -6.31% (n=5) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.95–+3.19% · other way +1.14% (n=5) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.49–+1.35% |
| 7 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.26–-0.08% · other way -0.24% (n=4) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.27–+1.01% · other way -1.2% (n=6) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.6–+0.78% |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.25–-0.04% |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.33–+0.4% · other way -0.12% (n=6) |
| 13 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.95–+2.36% · other way +62.86% (n=5) |
| 14 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.19–+0.24% · other way +4.11% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.2% | 78% | 39 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.0% | 72% | 39 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -2.2% | 71% | 39 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.5% | 69% | 39 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -9.2% | 70% | 14 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.7% | 61% | 21 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +0.0% | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |