What if Vanke defaults outright and Beijing's backstop disappears?
An uncured Vanke onshore default with Shenzhen Metro stepping back confirms the state backstop is gone: China-demand proxies lead, copper and China internet down, HY and global risk-off following as the property-credit spiral reprices. This is the Evergrande/Kaisa 2021 developer-contagion playbook, where offshore property HY went to deep distress. Forward angle: Vanke was the market's 'last safe' mixed-ownership name, so its fall removes the implicit-guarantee premium across the entire SOE-adjacent complex, a bigger confidence break than a pure-private default.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Shenzhen Metro halts further shareholder loans and Vanke misses an onshore coupon outright with no cure, confirming the state backstop is withdrawn. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.