What if Vertical AI agents disrupt legacy enterprise-software incumbents?
Purpose-built AI agents replace workflows owned by legacy CRM, ITSM and HR-software incumbents, threatening their installed-base revenue and forcing defensive repricing.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Purpose-built AI agents replace workflows owned by legacy CRM, ITSM and HR-software incumbents, threatening their installed-base revenue and forcing defensive repricing. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -2.67–+7.64% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.64–+2.04% · other way +3.33% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.33–+1.5% · other way -2.33% (n=12) |
| 4 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.63–+1.81% · other way +11.45% (n=12) |
| 5 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.61–+1.72% · other way -0.58% (n=7) |
| 6 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.2–+0.87% · other way +5.9% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.05–+2.55% · other way +2.75% (n=12) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.99–+4.22% · other way -0.94% (n=11) |
| 9 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.41–+1.25% · other way +3.83% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -15.5–+3.29% · other way +24.73% (n=6) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.74–+1.68% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 12 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.95–+0.69% · other way +0.85% (n=12) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.62–+0.72% · other way +0.46% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 21 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.2% · 5d -4.2% | 93% | 12 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 19 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.7% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 65% | 16 | 0.24 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.0% | 67% | 19 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 20 | 0.21 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 20 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +6.8% · 5d +1.8% | 58% | 19 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.6% | 58% | 20 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 17 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.09 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +0.5% | 53% | 19 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.4% | 51% | 20 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.3% · 5d +0.0% | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -3.4% | 51% | 20 | 0.02 | · |