What if drought slashes Vietnam's robusta coffee crop?
A Central Highlands drought is a robusta squeeze — long robusta coffee and pain for instant-coffee blenders (Nestle), not a grain or fab-water trade. Rhymes directly with the 2023-24 Vietnam drought that drove robusta to all-time highs and inverted the robusta-arabica spread. Vietnam is ~40% of world robusta, so transmission is global instant-coffee cost and a partial substitution into arabica; the wheat/corn/semis legs are the wrong instruments.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Severe drought in Vietnam's Central Highlands slashes robusta output, spiking instant-coffee costs worldwide. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.