What if Wage-deceleration disinflation: job-switching premium fades fast?
The pandemic-era job-switching wage premium fades as labor churn normalizes, decelerating pay growth and cementing services disinflation without job losses.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The pandemic-era job-switching wage premium fades as labor churn normalizes, decelerating pay growth and cementing services disinflation without job losses. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Growth surprise ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Labor surplus ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -5.55–+15.44% · other way +7.79% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.31–+1.49% · other way -6.3% (n=9) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.44–+0.59% · other way +0.51% (n=11) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.3–+3.41% · other way -6.68% (n=9) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.1–+3.53% · other way -0.98% (n=10) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.68–+-0.0% · other way +3.45% (n=11) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.64–+0.34% · other way +0.3% (n=11) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.44–+0.44% · other way -1.95% (n=12) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.0–+0.18% · other way +0.3% (n=11) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.29–+1.19% · other way +1.23% (n=11) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -4.71–+12.47% · other way +5.9% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.27–+0.87% · other way +0.8% (n=11) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -4.99–+18.41% · other way +2.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.0% · 5d +0.0% | 75% | 39 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +17bp · 5d +8bp | 67% | 40 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 66% | 39 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +5bp | 63% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 39 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +14.0% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -8.0% | 55% | 38 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -4.3% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.9% | 55% | 39 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |