What if White-collar displacement spike pushes US unemployment recession signal?
A rapid AI-driven cut in professional and clerical jobs lifts the unemployment rate enough to trip a Sahm-rule recession signal, hitting consumer confidence and discretionary spend and turning risk decisively defensive.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A rapid AI-driven cut in professional and clerical jobs lifts the unemployment rate enough to trip a Sahm-rule recession signal, hitting consumer confidence and discretionary spend and turning risk decisively defensive. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -4.95–+12.02% · other way +21.92% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -11.92–+1.21% · other way -1.54% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.72–-0.2% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -6.97–+1.65% · other way +2.81% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.21–+1.6% · other way +2.3% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.73–-0.13% · other way +4.82% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.34–+0.77% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.56–+0.06% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.35–-0.18% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.56–-0.1% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.4–+4.06% · other way +16.32% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.66–+0.96% · other way +1.8% (n=12) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.44–+1.71% · other way +2.34% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.3% · 5d -4.9% | 76% | 37 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 72% | 40 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -3.2% | 73% | 39 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.3% | 73% | 39 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 70% | 40 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -3.8% | 64% | 37 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 39 | 0.21 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.8% · 5d +1.1% | 59% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +1.2% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.4% | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.2% | 56% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |