What if a sustained oil-price drop widens Colombia's current-account gap and weakens the peso?
A sustained drop in oil prices undercuts Colombia's export and fiscal base, widening the current-account gap, weakening the peso and tightening external financing conditions.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sustained drop in oil prices undercuts Colombia's export and fiscal base, widening the current-account gap, weakening the peso and tightening external financing conditions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.4% hist -9.4–-0.64% · other way +1.98% (n=6) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.0% hist -7.49–+0.36% · other way -2.04% (n=7) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.65–+0.31% · other way +0.33% (n=7) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -1.68–+4.94% · other way +28.59% (n=6) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.88–-0.25% · other way +1.11% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.57–+0.17% · other way -1.2% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.79–+3.91% · other way +19.68% (n=6) |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.48–+0.4% · other way +3.2% (n=6) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -8.47–+3.26% · other way +1.57% (n=3) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.8–+0.66% · other way -7.41% (n=7) |
| 11 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.55–-0.12% · other way +0.92% (n=6) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.72–+0.01% · other way +0.47% (n=6) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.81–+2.22% · other way +5.96% (n=9) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -2.9% | 87% | 33 | 0.65 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -3.1% | 77% | 36 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -5.4% | 72% | 20 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -13.3% | 70% | 15 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -14bp · 5d -2bp | 64% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 34 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -16bp · 5d -4bp | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 28 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -7.2% | 64% | 16 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.2% · 5d +4.6% | 60% | 15 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 36 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 36 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |