What if Colombia's peace deal collapses into full insurgency?
A Colombian peace collapse with pipeline attacks is a modest, idiosyncratic crude leg: the Cano Limon-Covenas line is a routine FARC/ELN target, so +2.4% Brent overstates a chronic, well-understood disruption. Rhymes with the 2000s pipeline-bombing era, when repeated outages caused only brief, local price effects. Transmission: US Gulf refiners take Colombian heavy/medium crude; coca-region instability is more a domestic COP/sovereign story. Forward: Colombian output is already modest and declining, so the global oil impact is marginal -- fade.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. FARC dissidents and ELN resume full insurgency, attacking pipelines and coca regions as Colombia's peace process unravels. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.