What if a sharp oil-price drop sends the Colombian peso plunging?
A sharp oil-price drop sends the petro-sensitive Colombian peso plunging, importing inflation and forcing the central bank to slow easing or intervene.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sharp oil-price drop sends the petro-sensitive Colombian peso plunging, importing inflation and forcing the central bank to slow easing or intervene. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.4% hist -7.4–-0.11% · other way +2.53% (n=5) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.0% hist -8.04–+0.04% · other way -2.0% (n=6) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.26–+0.09% · other way +0.53% (n=6) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.44–+0.01% · other way +3.78% (n=5) |
| 5 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.56–-0.28% · other way +1.34% (n=5) |
| 6 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.25–+2.13% · other way +29.29% (n=5) |
| 7 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.01–+0.22% · other way +1.36% (n=12) |
| 8 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.69–+0.37% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 9 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.38–+0.69% · other way +19.73% (n=5) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -9.85–+1.64% · other way +1.57% (n=3) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.62–-0.04% · other way -0.25% (n=6) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.5–+2.22% · other way -9.38% (n=6) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -8.64–+1.95% · other way -6.94% (n=3) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -2.5% | 81% | 37 | 0.54 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -2.8% | 81% | 37 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.6% | 74% | 37 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -3.1% | 74% | 39 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -8.9% | 71% | 33 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.4% | 65% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.4% · 5d -6.8% | 68% | 34 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -4.6% | 67% | 37 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 37 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 64% | 37 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.7% | 63% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -6.3% | 62% | 22 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |