What if the TR4 fungus reaches Latin America's banana plantations?
TR4 in Ecuador/Colombia is a banana-specific supply threat — long banana import prices and pain for Chiquita/Dole/Fyffes sourcing, not a grain trade. Rhymes with the mid-20th-century Panama-disease wipeout of the Gros Michel that forced the global switch to Cavendish; TR4 has no resistant replacement at scale yet. Ecuador is the top exporter, so transmission is EU/US retail produce and Latin export FX; the wheat/corn proxy is the wrong instrument.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Fusarium TR4 ravages Cavendish banana plantations in Ecuador and Colombia, threatening the global export banana supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.