What if 2023-style immigration disinflation redux cools US wages (good)?
A renewed surge in legal and humanitarian labor inflows expands the workforce, easing wage pressure exactly as in 2023; the labor-surplus disinflation lets the Fed cut into a soft landing and lifts risk appetite.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A renewed surge in legal and humanitarian labor inflows expands the workforce, easing wage pressure exactly as in 2023; the labor-surplus disinflation lets the Fed cut into a soft landing and lifts risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Growth surprise ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Labor surplus ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.