What if Fed misreads soft NFP as immigration collapses breakeven payrolls?
An immigration shutdown drops the breakeven payroll pace so far that even healthy hiring prints look weak; the Fed misreads soft NFP as demand softness, holds dovish, and lets wage-driven services inflation run hotter.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. An immigration shutdown drops the breakeven payroll pace so far that even healthy hiring prints look weak; the Fed misreads soft NFP as demand softness, holds dovish, and lets wage-driven services inflation run hotter. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.51–+0.16% · other way -0.04% (n=12) |
| 2 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -5.02–+12.6% · other way +1.7% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -10.43–+11.5% · other way -15.89% (n=11) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -2.93–+8.97% · other way +7.4% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.01–+1.48% · other way -3.05% (n=11) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.68–+1.39% · other way -0.4% (n=12) |
| 8 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.63–+0.28% · other way +0.19% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.6–+0.28% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.75–+4.25% · other way +12.99% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 12 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.4% | 88% | 8 | 0.61 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 71% | 8 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +12.8% · 5d +0.0% | 67% | 4 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -4.8% | 69% | 6 | 0.25 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 65% | 8 | 0.21 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -2.8% | 65% | 8 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d 0bp ↺ fades | 56% | 12 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 56% | 12 | 0.09 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.7% | 55% | 5 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 8 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +13.3% | 53% | 8 | 0.04 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 48% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 8 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |