What if Labor-supply normalization breaks the US wage-price loop (good)?
Renewed labor inflows and rising participation normalize the US labor market, breaking the wage-price feedback loop; cooling services inflation lets the Fed ease and supports a durable risk-on backdrop.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Renewed labor inflows and rising participation normalize the US labor market, breaking the wage-price feedback loop; cooling services inflation lets the Fed ease and supports a durable risk-on backdrop. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Labor surplus ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -2.93–+2.1% · other way -4.12% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -7.05–+5.35% · other way +9.35% (n=9) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.25–+0.85% · other way +0.25% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.55–+1.93% · other way -2.48% (n=9) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.27–+0.74% · other way +0.33% (n=11) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.19–+2.5% · other way -6.04% (n=10) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.11–+1.02% · other way +12.93% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.45–+1.5% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -8.89–+3.66% · other way +7.68% (n=8) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -7.38–+15.48% · other way +3.3% (n=12) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.33–+0.99% · other way +1.01% (n=11) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -6.83–+21.27% · other way +1.5% (n=12) |
| 14 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▼ -4bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 17 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -3.4% | 100% | 6 | 0.61 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | SHORT | -9.3% · 5d -3.5% | 83% | 6 | 0.54 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +4.4% · 5d +0.4% | 76% | 16 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -0.9% | 80% | 10 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +20bp · 5d +4bp | 74% | 17 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.9% | 76% | 16 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -4.1% | 75% | 8 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +2bp | 69% | 17 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -4.3% | 64% | 16 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.0% | 67% | 16 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 13 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 15 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.3% | 63% | 13 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 63% | 13 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |