What if A pandemic or biosecurity scare triggers a sudden travel-demand shock?
A novel-pathogen scare prompts travel restrictions and booking cancellations, abruptly cutting airline revenue in a repeat of the demand-collapse playbook.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A novel-pathogen scare prompts travel restrictions and booking cancellations, abruptly cutting airline revenue in a repeat of the demand-collapse playbook. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Jet fuel ▼ · Pandemic shock ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.0% hist -5.28–+0.69% · other way +1.54% (n=11) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.5% hist +0.13–+1.73% · other way +0.18% (n=11) |
| 3 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -1.94–+5.77% · other way +1.47% (n=11) |
| 4 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.38–+0.39% · other way -1.44% (n=11) |
| 5 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.17–+1.89% · other way -0.2% (n=11) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.26–+0.11% · other way +5.26% (n=11) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.9–+0.27% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.66–+0.37% · other way +6.12% (n=11) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.12–+1.59% · other way +16.15% (n=11) |
| 11 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.39–+0.05% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.99–+9.72% · other way -3.32% (n=11) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -6bp hist -5.76–-0.76% · other way +21.2% (n=12) |
| 14 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.76–+0.04% · other way +0.75% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 37 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -0.7% | 75% | 33 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.8% | 68% | 10 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.2% | 67% | 30 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d 0bp | 65% | 37 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.2% | 63% | 30 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -0.5% | 63% | 30 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 66% | 32 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.1% | 63% | 30 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 30 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 30 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 33 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 58% | 37 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |