What if Acemoglu AI-productivity dud: mega-cap re-rating unwinds?
Macro productivity gains from AI prove small and slow (a la the Acemoglu critique), failing to justify capex; disappointed expectations trigger a mega-cap de-rating as the AI-margin narrative deflates.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Macro productivity gains from AI prove small and slow (a la the Acemoglu critique), failing to justify capex; disappointed expectations trigger a mega-cap de-rating as the AI-margin narrative deflates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · AI capex ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Robotics productivity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.9–+0.1% · other way +1.42% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.42–+1.74% · other way +1.03% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.04–-0.05% · other way +1.09% (n=12) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.35–+0.12% · other way +2.5% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.91–-0.49% · other way -0.43% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.92–-0.2% · other way -2.91% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.38–+0.43% · other way +1.72% (n=12) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.76–+0.08% · other way +0.2% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -16.06–+2.66% · other way -6.28% (n=12) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.87–+0.33% · other way -2.38% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.55–-0.33% · other way -0.45% (n=12) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.14–+3.04% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -4.12–+1.97% · other way +2.47% (n=12) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.81–+0.93% · other way -1.26% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.2% · 5d -5.6% | 93% | 13 | 0.58 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -5.2% | 71% | 18 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 65% | 25 | 0.26 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.2% | 62% | 25 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 24 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 23 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.0% | 60% | 25 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d +4.7% ↺ fades | 58% | 25 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.8% | 57% | 20 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 58% | 25 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 54% | 25 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.0% | 54% | 25 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +1.2% | 54% | 25 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 54% | 25 | 0.06 | · |