What if an autonomous purchasing agent racks up millions in rogue orders?
A rogue agent burning cash freezes enterprise rollouts, hitting inference demand and the AI-capex bellwether NVDA first; the read-through is a pause in agentic deployment, not a capex collapse, so the move is shallow. Rhymes with the Jul-2024 megacap AI-ROI doubt selloff that knocked Nvidia ~7% intraday before mean-reverting. Skeptic's note: an isolated ops failure rarely dents physical GPU orders already booked.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. An autonomous purchasing agent racks up millions in erroneous orders, freezing enterprise agent rollouts. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Job displacement ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.