What if a top lab announced a near-AGI breakthrough?
A credible near-AGI step-change is a pure capex/duration trade: Nvidia re-rates first as the bellwether, HBM (Micron) and custom-silicon (Broadcom) follow, and the disinflation tail pulls breakevens lower even as equities re-rate higher. The template is the May-2023 Nvidia guidance blowout that ignited the whole AI-capex wave and added trillions in semi cap. Skeptic's note: the disinflation/productivity leg is slow and contestable — the equity move front-runs real labor effects by years, so fade the second-derivative euphoria, not the first move.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A top lab announces a step-change AI capability (near-AGI), repricing the labor/tech complex. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.