What if AGI-level model arrives?
A frontier lab ships a model that matches expert humans across most economically valuable cognitive work, triggering a capability step-change and an AI-capex super-cycle.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A frontier lab ships a model that matches expert humans across most economically valuable cognitive work, triggering a capability step-change and an AI-capex super-cycle. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▲ · AI capex ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +5.9% hist +0.22–+8.48% · other way -2.1% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.8% hist +1.72–+3.85% · other way +0.84% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +3.3% hist +1.63–+2.76% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 4 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.2% hist +0.62–+3.43% · other way +3.97% (n=12) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.1% hist -3.89–+5.69% · other way -1.48% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.6% hist -2.93–+3.49% · other way +2.56% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.6% hist +1.41–+2.4% · other way +0.61% (n=12) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.6% hist +0.63–+2.13% · other way +2.77% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.3% hist +1.1–+2.28% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.2% hist +0.3–+2.11% · other way -1.89% (n=12) |
| 11 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist -1.55–+2.2% · other way -0.61% (n=12) |
| 12 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.53–+1.52% · other way -2.17% (n=12) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -23.46–+5.79% · other way -12.47% (n=10) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.14–+1.78% · other way -3.71% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 11 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -20.7% · 5d -9.7% | 100% | 9 | 0.71 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +15.4% · 5d +0.3% | 75% | 11 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +1.4% | 75% | 11 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.8% | 75% | 11 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.5% | 75% | 11 | 0.36 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.7% · 5d -3.2% ↺ fades | 71% | 11 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 75% | 11 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -0.9% | 75% | 11 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 71% | 11 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 68% | 11 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 68% | 11 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.6% | 64% | 11 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 11 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d -3bp ↺ fades | 64% | 11 | 0.19 | · |