What if AI agents take over legal document review?
AI document review collapsing first-year associate hiring is a real billable-hour threat, but it bids the AI-capex names only marginally. Rhymes with the e-discovery/TAR adoption wave (2010s, Da Silva Moore ruling) that cut review costs without breaking BigLaw economics. Skeptic's note: leverage-model disruption is a multi-year private-market story; the public-equity transmission here is thin and the credit-spread leg is a stretch.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A top law firm replaces associate-heavy document review with AI agents, collapsing entry-level legal hiring and billable-hour models. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Job displacement ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.