What if AI bond-issuance wave widens IG spreads as supply floods?
Hyperscalers and neoclouds flood the market with AI-capex bonds, and the supply glut widens investment-grade tech spreads even before any earnings disappointment.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Hyperscalers and neoclouds flood the market with AI-capex bonds, and the supply glut widens investment-grade tech spreads even before any earnings disappointment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.07–+0.66% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -13.99–+0.49% · other way +1.57% (n=11) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.9–+4.42% · other way -1.2% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.73–+0.07% · other way +0.35% (n=12) |
| 5 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.59–-0.01% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -8.41–+1.95% · other way +3.92% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.73–+0.84% · other way +5.0% (n=11) |
| 9 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.1–+2.58% · other way +2.06% (n=12) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.17–-0.1% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–+0.12% · other way +0.51% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.42–+0.02% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 13 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.35–+0.36% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.17–+2.9% · other way +2.75% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.6% · 5d -8.0% | 84% | 20 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -4.5% | 68% | 20 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.8% | 67% | 21 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -3.2% | 63% | 37 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 35 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 37 | 0.20 | · |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 20 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 54% | 37 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 29 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -4bp | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.1% · 5d +1.3% | 51% | 38 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.7% | 51% | 39 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 47% | 37 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |