What if a high-profile admission that AI returns are years away breaks the market narrative?
A high-profile admission that AI returns are years away breaks the bubble narrative, triggering a confidence-driven repricing across public and private AI assets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A high-profile admission that AI returns are years away breaks the bubble narrative, triggering a confidence-driven repricing across public and private AI assets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · AI capex ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.42–-0.19% · other way +4.19% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -16.74–+2.59% · other way -17.09% (n=11) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.2% hist -4.33–+2.55% · other way -2.93% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.84–-0.19% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.98–+0.01% · other way +10.05% (n=12) |
| 6 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.29–+3.13% · other way +5.73% (n=12) |
| 7 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.29–-0.05% · other way -1.63% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.72–+0.3% · other way +1.37% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -11.66–+2.99% · other way +0.11% (n=11) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.42–+0.74% · other way +3.62% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.25–+0.48% · other way +1.24% (n=12) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.5–-0.12% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.68–+0.51% · other way -3.31% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 24 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.6% · 5d -5.1% | 100% | 11 | 0.63 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -10.1% · 5d -5.5% | 75% | 16 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 64% | 22 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 65% | 24 | 0.26 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.2% | 63% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 23 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.9% | 59% | 24 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.8% | 61% | 24 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.5% | 57% | 24 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.7% | 57% | 24 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d +8.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 24 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 24 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.6% | 55% | 24 | 0.08 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -3.1% | 54% | 18 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |