What if AI-bubble narrative cracks, software-and-platform multiples reset?
A high-profile AI revenue disappointment punctures the bubble narrative, triggering a sharp multiple reset across AI-exposed software and platform names in a tech-led risk-off.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A high-profile AI revenue disappointment punctures the bubble narrative, triggering a sharp multiple reset across AI-exposed software and platform names in a tech-led risk-off. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · AI breakthrough ▼ · AI capex ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.59–+0.66% |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.74–-0.32% |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.82–+0.03% |
| 4 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.01–+1.38% |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.7–+0.54% |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -20.01–-2.04% |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.8–+1.59% |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.73–+6.65% |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.65–+1.91% |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.31–+0.13% |
| 12 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.34–+0.17% |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.79–+0.58% |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.42–-0.12% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 39 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.5% · 5d -6.7% | 96% | 21 | 0.62 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.1% | 68% | 37 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 37 | 0.24 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 34 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.2% | 58% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.8% | 57% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 38 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -5.2% | 57% | 27 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 31 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.2% | 56% | 37 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +7.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 52% | 37 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |