What if an AI-asset unwind impairs banks across margin loans, data-center credit, and underwriting?
An AI-asset unwind impairs bank exposures across margin loans, data-center credit and equity underwriting, the multi-channel transmission supervisors stress-test for.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An AI-asset unwind impairs bank exposures across margin loans, data-center credit and equity underwriting, the multi-channel transmission supervisors stress-test for. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.43–+0.7% · other way +4.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.69–+0.2% · other way +9.23% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -16.57–+0.47% · other way -18.52% (n=10) |
| 4 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.33–+1.52% · other way +6.77% (n=12) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.89–+0.17% · other way -0.67% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.06–-0.07% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -10.66–+2.15% · other way -0.75% (n=10) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.72–+0.6% · other way +1.99% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -6.99–+1.37% · other way +2.89% (n=11) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.97–+5.43% · other way -4.69% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.56–-0.22% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.51–+0.34% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.6–+0.26% · other way -2.37% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.4% · 5d -7.3% | 87% | 19 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -2.1% | 68% | 21 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.9% · 5d -4.5% | 69% | 20 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 37 | 0.19 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.2% | 61% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 37 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -13bp · 5d -4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.8% | 58% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 35 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +2.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 19 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.3% | 57% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 29 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.7% | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |