What if AI-capex air pocket cools the industrial-metals bid?
A pause in AI datacenter buildout dents the electrification-demand narrative; copper and other base metals give back risk premium as positioning unwinds.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A pause in AI datacenter buildout dents the electrification-demand narrative; copper and other base metals give back risk premium as positioning unwinds. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · AI capex ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.28–+0.33% · other way +9.53% (n=11) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.02–+0.57% · other way +1.43% (n=11) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.62–+0.38% · other way +2.12% (n=10) |
| 4 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.15–+0.16% · other way -0.3% (n=11) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.2–+0.51% · other way -0.28% (n=11) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–+-0.0% · other way +2.1% (n=11) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -8.63–+0.96% · other way -9.37% (n=9) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.74–+1.22% · other way +19.64% (n=11) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -10.12–+1.56% · other way +3.86% (n=9) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.43–+0.03% · other way +0.68% (n=11) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.31–-0.01% · other way -1.25% (n=11) |
| 13 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.9–+0.24% · other way +1.92% (n=11) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.11–+2.65% · other way +0.75% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -5.3% | 77% | 27 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -5.3% | 73% | 28 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.7% | 71% | 33 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 33 | 0.28 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.5% · 5d +0.2% | 62% | 34 | 0.22 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.3% | 65% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -3.4% | 65% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 30 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.9% | 60% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.9% | 59% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.7% | 57% | 33 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |