What if AI capex boom-to-bust: 2026 buildout becomes 2028 glut?
A multi-year datacenter spending surge overshoots end-demand, turning a boom into a capacity glut with falling utilization and pricing. The reversal drags equipment makers, credit, and the broad tape.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A multi-year datacenter spending surge overshoots end-demand, turning a boom into a capacity glut with falling utilization and pricing. The reversal drags equipment makers, credit, and the broad tape. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.2–+0.28% · other way +7.82% (n=10) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.31–+1.47% · other way +4.87% (n=7) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.25–+1.33% · other way -3.73% (n=10) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.27–+0.69% · other way +19.68% (n=10) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -12.16–+1.92% · other way -14.2% (n=5) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.68–+0.64% · other way +0.78% (n=10) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.52–-0.2% · other way +1.12% (n=10) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.4–+7.77% · other way -7.83% (n=10) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -11.17–+3.13% · other way +4.66% (n=5) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -7.73–+1.26% · other way +9.03% (n=5) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.47–-0.1% · other way +0.48% (n=9) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.82–+0.57% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.66–+0.49% · other way -2.76% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.9% · 5d -6.2% | 87% | 15 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -1.7% | 74% | 19 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.8% · 5d -4.2% | 75% | 16 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -1.6% | 68% | 38 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.1% | 63% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d +1.7% ↺ fades | 64% | 14 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.9% · 5d +2.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.6% | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.9% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -9bp · 5d 0bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.0% | 56% | 36 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.0% | 55% | 38 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |