What if new disclosures reveal the true scale of debt-financed and off-balance-sheet AI capex?
New disclosure requirements reveal the true scale of debt-financed and off-balance-sheet AI capex, shocking investors into repricing the sector's leverage.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. New disclosure requirements reveal the true scale of debt-financed and off-balance-sheet AI capex, shocking investors into repricing the sector's leverage. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.25–+0.8% · other way +4.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.54–+0.29% · other way +9.23% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -16.51–+0.51% · other way -18.52% (n=10) |
| 4 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.25–+1.65% · other way +6.77% (n=12) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.76–+0.25% · other way -0.67% (n=12) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.64–+0.66% · other way +1.99% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -10.58–+2.2% · other way -0.75% (n=10) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -6.92–+1.41% · other way +2.89% (n=11) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.47–-0.17% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.05–+5.3% · other way -4.69% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.9–+0.02% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.28–-0.03% · other way -1.53% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.51–+0.32% · other way -2.37% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.4% · 5d -7.3% | 87% | 19 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -2.1% | 68% | 21 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.9% · 5d -4.5% | 69% | 20 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 37 | 0.19 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.2% | 61% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 37 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -13bp · 5d -4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.8% | 58% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 35 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +2.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 19 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.3% | 57% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 29 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.7% | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |