What if AI capex peaks and free cash flow inflects hyperscalers higher?
As the heaviest build phase passes, hyperscaler capex intensity peaks and free cash flow re-accelerates, re-rating the group on improving cash returns.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. As the heaviest build phase passes, hyperscaler capex intensity peaks and free cash flow re-accelerates, re-rating the group on improving cash returns. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -8.91–+1.49% · other way +10.44% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.94–+6.87% · other way +16.81% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -5.34–+2.01% · other way +2.56% (n=12) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.07–+0.71% · other way +2.71% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.16–+0.24% · other way +1.07% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.93–+1.68% · other way +3.75% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.0–+0.22% · other way +1.16% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.4–+0.38% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.43–+3.12% · other way +13.96% (n=10) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.02–+0.25% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.5% · 5d -5.5% | 76% | 36 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 39 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -4.8% | 62% | 37 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 38 | 0.12 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -2.1% | 55% | 37 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.8% | 53% | 38 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +4bp | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 47% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.5% | 43% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.9% | 42% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 49% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.1% | 47% | 39 | 0.00 | · |