What if the AI capital spending boom finally pays off in productivity?
A confirmed productivity surge validates the capex, flipping the buildout from 'spend' to 'payoff': NVDA/Broadcom/Micron re-rate higher on durable demand, semis and crypto beta ride risk-on, VIX compresses. The template is May-2023, when Nvidia's guidance blowout ignited the entire AI-capex wave and lifted the complex for months. Forward angle: a macro (TFP) confirmation broadens the trade beyond chips into software and power/grid names — the laggards, not NVDA, offer the fresher beta.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Macro data confirms an AI-driven productivity surge, lifting growth estimates and re-rating the buildout. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.9% hist -0.43–+3.43% · other way -2.58% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist +0.09–+1.77% · other way +4.17% (n=12) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.8–+1.24% · other way +0.67% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.01–+1.62% · other way -13.36% (n=9) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.05–+1.48% · other way +1.36% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -7.07–+20.99% · other way +6.94% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.57–+2.55% · other way -12.03% (n=10) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.29–+0.51% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.38–+0.79% · other way +2.58% (n=12) |
| 11 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.31–+1.9% · other way +0.31% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.13–+0.86% · other way +1.71% (n=12) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.68–+0.75% · other way -2.48% (n=12) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.37–-0.19% · other way -1.46% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long on SOL: the realized -14.6% is crypto/BTC beta, not the AI-capex channel — SOL is swamped by its own driver, so sell-the-news prints misread a sustained productivity re-rating.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.6% | 72% | 40 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.2% | 67% | 40 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.9% | 72% | 40 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.3% | 70% | 40 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.4% | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 40 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +0bp | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.8% | 65% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +19.0% · 5d +1.4% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
AI productivity surge already partly visible by 2026; macro confirmation over 1-3yr plausible but unproven. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.